Curated Insights 2018.07.13

Confessions of a digital dinosaur: Esports is the next great traditional sport

Esports is becoming the next great traditional sport because more young people are regularly playing and watching them than any other sport. For young people esports has a tremendous first-mover advantage of being the first digitally native sport.

Matt Kim, an esports reporter offers an interesting perspective. He grew up in Seoul, South Korea where the national sport is esports. “By the time I left South Korea, StarCraft was a dominant pop culture fixture in ways I don’t think a lot of people really understand. It wasn’t just because South Korea was paying professional gamers years before anyone else, or that competitions were broadcast on major television networks. In South Korea, StarCraft was literally everywhere, from branding on clothes to labels on food. It was in everyday conversations with classmates. Posters were plastered across city windows of seemingly infinite PC bangs – cafes where players pay by the hour. Now I’m seeing esports (in the U.S.) in mid-construction where it’s my job to report on its progress. Yet it feels like I’ve already seen the ending, and now I get to witness its engineering in reverse.”

1.2 billion hours were watched of the League of Legends Championships. More than 80 million unique viewers watched one match alone. By comparison, 76 million watched the final episode of Seinfeld, the Super Bowl of traditional television. If this is hard to get your head around, imagine how advertisers are trying to chew on this exponential opportunity while some of their traditional platforms are being spit out with declining viewership.

The video game online streaming audience is more than five times greater than Netflix subscribers, and Twitch dominates this market. According to Cerulli, the average age of a wealth manager is 51. I wonder how many have even heard of Twitch. Twitch is home to more than 2 million broadcasts a month shown to more than 15 million unique daily viewers. Their audience watched 355 billion minutes of Twitch last year. More than 150,000 streamers – the people providing the content – are getting paid from the Twitch platform alone. The total number of creators earning money more than tripled year over year. All with enough left over for Twitch to raise more than $30 million for charities. The revenue side has explosive scale while the cost per broadcast has to be even more enticing to future creators. I met a broadcaster on Twitch who needed a cheap webcam and comfortable chair. Compare that to an itemized cost to produce an average football game on television I found.

Even the cutting edge seems too crowded to one of my favorite thinkers – Daryl Morey, the General Manager of the Houston Rockets – who likes to be even earlier. He has completely revolutionized my favorite game of basketball. But, he’s not done. He now compares the growth opportunity of esports to 1950s basketball. Morey explains, “I say it all the time because it’s true: The three dominant sports in the future are going to be soccer, basketball and esports.”

“I believe esports will rival the biggest traditional sports leagues in terms of future opportunities, and between advertising, ticket sales, licensing, sponsorships and merchandising, there are tremendous growth areas for this nascent industry.” That comes from Steve Borenstein, Chairman of Activision’s esports division, who is the former CEO of ESPN and the NFL Network.

How Amazon steers shoppers to its own products

Amazon’s move into the private label retail space started small and quiet. As the article says, “It started with a simple battery.” Now, AmazonBasics batteries account for a third of online battery sales. To stay competitive, brands like Energizer are paying to advertise at the top of relevant search results. While AmazonBasics only has about 100 products, the room for growth is large, and they have the data to see what products to take private next. “About 70 percent of the word searches done on Amazon’s search browser are for generic goods. That means consumers are typing in “men’s underwear” or “running shoes” rather than asking, specifically, for Hanes or Nike.”


What an Amazon Pharmacy could solve, and what it won’t

In the future, patients could log into their Amazon accounts to track their prescription history, helping them better track their own health care. The company could also offer something like the “you might also like” recommendation engine, but more based on science than browsing history. A patient might indicate he has coronary heart disease and high cholesterol, for example. Amazon would also have data on the patient’s meds, and could recommend alternative treatments. Or Amazon might inform doctors that similar patients are getting a higher dose of the same drug.

Amazon would also have the capacity to collect data on side effects. Clinical trials are not big enough or run over a long enough time period to catch the less common side effects. Those tend to be identified after drugs go on the market and are widely used. But they might be identified faster if patients reported side effects the same way they write reviews of products. Not all reported complaints will be attributable to the drugs, but with enough data, patterns would emerge.

Netflix is a product & technology company (Netflix misunderstandings, pt. 2)

There’s a pernicious and persistent narrative about Netflix where the company’s success is overwhelmingly attributed to the mistakes of its suppliers. Not only did these suppliers (a group that included nearly every major media company) continually sell the most valuable rights to their most valuable content to Netflix, they massively underpriced these deals. As such, the streaming upstart was able to (1) access large volumes of high quality content at a time when it had none of its own; (2) build a business atop the creative successes of its eventual competitors; and (3) benefit from years of relatively uncontested OTT leadership. Hence success!

The prioritization of engagement time over quality is controversial, but there are a few explanations. To start, one has to assume Netflix is correct in observing that, at least in the short-run, watch time has a (much) stronger impact on retention than quality (and of course, the former is a more objective, quantifiable and analyzable metric). This relationship likely stems from the unique dynamics of an unbundled, D2C subscription content service.

This view considers content as fundamentally substitutable – because it’s not an experience being bought (or sold), it’s time. Quality is expressed through viewing volume and, as with most substitutable goods, pricing efficiency is paramount. If the average title generates 100 hours per dollar, then a title that generates only 80 hours costs Netflix 25% of potential viewing hours and thus avoidable subscriber losses and realizable subscriber gains. This dynamic is further bolstered by the role of cost amortization. The decision to make The Crown is an expensive one irrespective of the number of hours produced; set building, costume design, casting, scoring and location scouting are upfront, fixed costs, largely independent of episode count. As such, a 10-episode season typically won’t cost 11% more than a nine-episode one. Given the likelihood that a viewer would watch ten episodes rather than nine if given the choice, elongation drives both net engagement and efficiency gains. And that’s just in adding one episode.

To that same end, Netflix’s obsession with engagement may change as OTT video grows from its infancy into a more competitive puberty. As Netflix edges towards domestic saturation, its revenue growth will primarily be driven by price increases – and a reputation for overlong series and B-grade movies may prove problematic regardless of watch time growth (HBO’s price, after all, is 37% higher despite offering a fraction of the library and achieving even less engagement per customer). In addition, the competition in OTT video is only getting stronger. As new entrants attack the space with different priorities, or higher quality thresholds, Netflix will need to respond. Product will not be enough.


Netflix isn’t being reckless, it’s just playing a game no one else dares (Netflix misunderstandings, pt. 3)

Netflix’s goal is to have more subscribers than any other video service in the world, and to be the primary source of video content for each of these subscribers. The company doesn’t want to be a leader in video, or even the leader in video – it wants to monopolize the consumption of video; to become TV. This ambition has several important consequences, especially relating to the company’s spend.

Online distribution encourages audiences to concentrate their watching time and enables networks to monopolize their viewers’ attention. Much of this comes from the fact that unlike pay TV, most online video subscriptions are sold a la carte and on a month-to-month basis. This has four major implications. First, it’s harder for viewers to discover competing networks or sample their content, as they’re no longer a channel change away. Second, it’s harder for any network to acquire new paying customers, as this requires each would-be subscriber to first decide they’re willing to spend more money each month, then go through the process of signing-up. And even when a paid customer is acquired, retention is a challenge. A few great shows each year isn’t enough to sustain 12 straight months of paid subscriptions and avoid “binge-and-churn” subscriber behavior. Fourth, the viewer experience of managing multiple streaming networks is rough. Unlike pay TV, which bundles all channels onto a single output with a consistent UI and centralized guides, OTT video requires audiences to contend with multiple apps, with different watchlists and interfaces (e.g. some have individual user profiles others don’t; some boast great UIs, others are horrid), not to mention variable definitions of reliability and streaming quality. On top of this, internet-enabled personalization and on-demand distribution allows a digital network to be all things to all people at all times – no longer are dozens of channels needed to satisfy the various interests of a single zip code. And finally, digital networks are free to air any content at any time – and as such, any consumption lubricates additional consumption and prevents consumption of a competitor.

Netflix’s goal is to functionally replace the entire bundle– to have so much content that customers don’t need another general entertainment aggregator, be it Hulu or DirecTV Now. Audiences would still have a few focused carve outs, such as HBO, ESPN or Disney, but rather than enlisting for Discovery + AMC + ABC + Nickelodeon + Showtime etc., the average household would just need Netflix. Not only does the company benefit from a virtuous cycle in pursuit of this goal, this would save the average household hundreds of dollars per year even if Netflix doubled or tripled its monthly fee. This end-state might seem ambitious, but that’s why Netflix’s spend is both substantial and aggressive – the goal isn’t just satisfying current subscribers, it’s to replace almost all its competitors.


Netflix and the rise of global scale media (or how media learned to love its customers)

Two important results of this has been the ability to raise its prices 3 times in the past 4 years without materially impacting its long-term growth rate, demonstrating just how much consumer surplus it provides the customer relative to the value it captures via pricing, while also bringing down its churn rate over time, demonstrating increasing customer satisfaction with its service. The large value gap also means that Netflix has additional pricing power in the future it can take to improve its margins.

Netflix has also created the capability to source content globally (sometimes required by regulation in certain locales) and redistributing it to subscribers in foreign geographies that would never have sought it out for lack of awareness. This data driven targeting/marketing capability uniquely provides Netflix’s the capability to drive viewer demand for its content investments across a global audience (increasing scale of demand) while increasing both the pool of its content supply (lowering overall cost) while better pricing the value of each piece of content pays.

JOHN MALONE: It’s way too late… So, you know, his scale, the ability to create content to scale. I mean, if you think about it, three years ago, HBO was the biggest, most powerful thing in the– in the– premium entertainment category. They spent I think two and– $2 billion to $2.5 billion on content. They’re now dwarfed. And beside that, HBO is essentially only a domestic distributor. So they don’t have the global platform under them. And, while they can syndicate or sell their content to foreign distributors, it– it– it is not nearly as strong a business model as being able to know the customer, deliver the stuff directly, and control the pricing at which your product is delivered. So– and having all the information about the consumer and their habits– which in Reed’s case, he’s not using for advertising at this point, but he certainly can use that to optimize his programming. So I– I think he’s done a brilliant job of– of building that business. Scale is– is very, very powerful when you’re producing something that has a high fixed and very low variable cost. So when you get to a point where your marginal cost is $0, profitability is enormous as you scale up.”

China’s risqué live-streaming apps are now objectifying men too

Live-streaming is expected to nearly double from this year to 126.8 billion yuan ($19 billion) in China by 2022, according to a research report from internet consultant IResearch. YY and Momo both take about 60 percent of the cut of tips that live-streamers make.

Already, YY has lifted the revenue contribution from female users by 10 percentage points to about 40 percent this year from when it first started the business, Li said. On Momo, women account for only about 25 percent of users and men remain the main source of tipping. Yet the company is working to create services that will make female users more open to using its platform including women-oriented gaming, cosmetics and fashion channels, according to Jia Wei, vice president of Momo and general manager of live-streaming.

JD.com estimates that women’s spending power will reach 4.5 trillion yuan ($676 billion) in China by 2019.

Can live streaming make money? Takeaways from Huya’s May IPO

According to an earlier PricewaterhouseCoopers report on trends in the sector, China and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming the largest consumer markets for online gaming and will maintain a steady compound annual growth rate (13.9%), with total revenue for the sector reaching US$195 million by 2021. Looking at the driving force behind this propulsion in value, PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2021, the value of advertising from live stream media will reach US$84 million, and events revenue will reach US$54 million. Player fees alone will net US$31 million. Ultimately, the rise of eSports in China is related to the booming video game market. In 2016, the Chinese video game sector was worth US$15.4 billion. By 2021, it is expected to challenge today’s largest market, the US, for first place, with expected revenues of $26.2 billion.


Activision is ‘best positioned’ for the coming billion-dollar eSports bonanza

eSports are expected to generate direct revenue of over $900 million this year and cross the $1 billion threshold in 2019, Post said. But those figures may just be scratching the surface. Over time, and using a traditional sports analogy, we believe eSports advertising (streaming, sponsorship), ticket sales, promotions, and merchandise sales could reach $15 billion.

Intel acquires eASIC to take its chipsets deeper into IoT and other future technologies

“We’re seeing the largest adoption of FPGA ever because of explosion of data and cloud services, and we think this will give us a lot of differentiation versus the likes of Xilinx,” which is one of Intel’s biggest competitors in FPGA. “We’ll be able to offer an end-to-end lifecycle that fits today’s changing workloads and infrastructure. No one on the marketplace will have this.” FPGA designs allow companies to quickly modify chip architectures, but they also require a lot of power. eASIC chips are more efficient, and they can be configured quickly from the outset (but cannot be modified).


Morningstar targets slice of $19tn market with in-house funds

The group’s highly-prized industry ratings system is influential in determining the fate of fund management companies. A poor rating, or negative report from an analyst, can often trigger sharp outflows, while top-rated funds draw huge inflows.

Morningstar said its mutual funds would not be qualitatively rated by its own analysts but they would be eligible for an in-house algorithmically-assigned star rating after a three-year performance record, at which time they would become a client of the group’s research arm.

Having started life as a boutique research provider that compiled data on 400 mutual funds three decades ago, Morningstar has become a powerhouse of the asset management industry, employing 5,000 staff, overseeing more than $200bn of assets and publishing data on 233,000 mutual funds.

Harvard study: Heat slows down the brain by 13%

The study has socioeconomic findings, too: if you’re too poor to afford air-conditioning you might fall behind at work or at school. In fact, studies are proving this repeatedly.

America, by and large, has an obsession with A/C… 87% of American homes have A/C. There are currently 1.6 billion A/C units in the world, and that figure is expected to be five times greater by 2050 as climate change takes its toll.

Curated Insights 2017.11.19

Winners and losers In the patent wars between Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft

Google: The full stack AI company

A startup might achieve a breakthrough in an AI vertical, but reaching hundreds of millions of users could take years. The same breakthrough in Google’s hands could be “turned on” for a billion users overnight. Users benefit immediately, while Google’s products become sticker and more valuable.

Google is already seeing a similar benefit. While competitors are using off the shelf processors for deep learning, Google’s TPU provides higher throughout, reduced latency and, perhaps most importantly, reduced power consumption. Because data center construction is Google’s largest capital spending line item and power its highest operating cost, the TPU meaningfully reduces both Google’s capex and opex.

Google’s AI efforts have built a fully integrated company that spans algorithms, data, hardware, and cloud services. This approach helps funnel the world-class AI of Google’s consumer products to its enterprise offerings, providing Google Cloud with a competitive edge. Bringing chip design in-house increases Google’s AI moat by improving performance, lowering latency, and reducing cost. Perhaps most critically, vertical integration enhances its organizational agility: Google can steer all parts of its organization to bring a new product or service to market. Consequently, Google’s AI will be at the forefront of the innovation for years to come.


How Facebook figures out everyone you’ve ever met

Shadow contact information has been a known feature of Facebook for a few years now. But most users remain unaware of its reach and power. Because shadow-profile connections happen inside Facebook’s algorithmic black box, people can’t see how deep the data-mining of their lives truly is, until an uncanny recommendation pops up.

Facebook doesn’t like, and doesn’t use, the term “shadow profiles.” It doesn’t like the term because it sounds like Facebook creates hidden profiles for people who haven’t joined the network, which Facebook says it doesn’t do. The existence of shadow contact information came to light in 2013 after Facebook admitted it had discovered and fixed “a bug.” The bug was that when a user downloaded their Facebook file, it included not just their friends’ visible contact information, but also their friends’ shadow contact information.

It’s what the sociologist danah boyd calls “networked privacy”: All the people who know you and who choose to share their contacts with Facebook are making it easier for Facebook to make connections you may not want it to make. Shadow profile data powers Facebook’s effort to connect as many people as possible, in as many ways as possible. The company’s ability to perceive the threads connecting its billion-plus users around the globe led it to announce last year that it’s not six degrees that separate one person from another—it’s just three and a half.

“Mobile phone numbers are even better than social security numbers for identifying people,” said security technologist Bruce Schneier by email. “People give them out all the time, and they’re strongly linked to identity.”


Will Amazon disrupt healthcare?

Amazon is exceptional at developing formulas to increase efficiency and decrease waste — two vital elements sorely lacking in the current healthcare paradigm.

Baby boomers may be tethered to their in-person interactions with physicians and pharmacists, but millennials are not. They are Amazon’s target audience.

Amazon has several key advantages in a world of personalized medicine — loads of storage space because of its AWS business, sophisticated predictive algorithms, and long-standing, data-rich relationships with millions of “patients”.


How Netflix works: the (hugely simplified) complex stuff that happens every time you hit Play

Netflix estimates that it uses around 700 microservices to control each of the many parts of what makes up the entire Netflix service…And that’s the tip of the iceberg. Netflix engineers can make changes to any part of the application and can introduce new changes rapidly while ensuring that nothing else in the entire service breaks down.

Turns out that Netflix and Amazon’s partnership turned out to be a huge win-win situation for both companies. Netflix turned out to be AWS’s most advanced customers, pushing all of their capabilities to the maximum and constantly innovating upon how they can use the different servers AWS provided for various purposes — to run microservices, to store movies, to handle internet traffic — to their own leverage. AWS in turn improved their systems to allow Netflix to take massive loads on their servers, as well as make their use of different AWS products more flexible, and used the expertise gained to serve the needs of thousands of other corporate customers. AWS proudly touts Netflix as it’s top customer, and Netflix can rapidly improve their services and yet keep it stable because of AWS.


People watch Netflix unabashedly at work (and in public toilets, too)

About 67% of people now watch movies and TV shows in public, according to an online survey it commissioned of 37,000 adults around the world. The most popular public places to stream are on planes, buses, or commuting, the survey found. But 26% of respondents also said they’ve binged shows and movies at work. People in the US were more likely to stream from the office, while users around the world were more likely to stream during their commutes.

For Netflix, mobile still makes up a small chunk of overall viewing. Netflix said it was about 10% as of 2016. But the company also said half of its users stream from a smartphone during any given month. Its audience is now around 110 million subscribers worldwide.


Will traditional auto makers steal the future from Tesla?

Even if electric cars take off in the early to mid-2020s when their cost is likely to be comparable to gas- and diesel-powered vehicles, Garschina thinks the major global auto makers will still dominate the business. Credit Suisse auto analyst Daniel Schwarz recently wrote that auto makers would emerge as winners from simpler, less capital-intensive production of electric vehicles over the next 10 years.

Investors might not be giving the auto industry credit for manufacturing skills honed over decades. As Tesla has found, mass-producing automobiles isn’t easy; the company continues to lose money and grapple with production woes. “The more we learn about new technologies, the clearer it becomes that the key auto makers won’t be disrupted overnight,” says Arndt Ellinghorst, a European auto analyst with Evercore ISI.

Morgan Stanley has estimated that it could take $2.7 trillion of infrastructure investment by 2040 to support a global electric fleet, including 473 million home chargers and seven million super-charging stations. It’s unclear where all that money will come from. The additional need for electricity would be equivalent to current U.S. demand.


These hot restaurants aren’t on maps, only in apps

Virtual restaurants, with their low overhead, are allowing restaurateurs to shift away from the capital-intensive model that kills 60% of new restaurants in their first five years toward something decidedly more techy.

By far the biggest company in the app-driven food-on-demand space is Grubhub. It is so invested in virtual restaurants that two years ago it lent one of its own customers, Green Summit Group, $1 million to expand. Green Summit, which launched in 2013, has kitchens throughout New York City, Todd Millman, its co-founder, says. There might be up to 10 different “restaurants” In a single kitchen. Though they appear on Grubhub as separate establishments, each with a distinct cuisine, all the food might be prepared in the same kitchen by the same staff.

In San Jose, Grubhub competitor DoorDash has built out its own kitchen space. There is one tenant so far, a pizzeria called the Star. (More are on the way, DoorDash says.) To save on rent, DoorDash built the facility in a disused portion of the Santa Clara County Fairgrounds. One month in, the Star’s savings have been notable, says Ben Seabury, chief operating officer of the 1100 Group, which owns the virtual restaurant. Typically, 30 cents of every dollar that comes into one of his restaurants goes to labor, says Mr. Seabury. But without waiters, bartenders and dishwashers, that cost is just 10 cents on the dollar—and even less when demand is high.

Virtual restaurants tap into a larger trend: Americans’ increasing aversion to cooking for themselves. For the first time ever in 2016, Americans spent more at eating and drinking establishments than on groceries, according to U.S. Census data. The food-delivery market is a small slice of that sector: It is only $30 billion in 2017, but Morgan Stanley estimates it could balloon to $220 billion within a few years.

 

Digitizing cash transactions could become quite profitable

Turning financial data into an asset is an early stage opportunity. On a global basis, more than 80% of transactions still occur in cash. Indeed, companies and, at some point, consumers have yet to digitize more than 1.4 trillion transactions per year, roughly equivalent to the number of Google searches per year. Our research indicates that the information associated with digital cash transactions could generate approximately $100 billion of revenue per year.

While we believe that disrupting and digitizing cash transactions represents a large “fintech” opportunity, the benefits are unlikely to accrue to the traditional financial services industry, as it lacks the requisite innovation agility, cost structure, and technical abilities to access and exploit it. Instead, innovative technology companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Tencent that already are transforming big data into big revenue, probably will capitalize on this opportunity.

Companies with the ability to develop deep and dynamic insights into consumer purchasing behavior will be in the best position to capitalize on this $100 billion revenue opportunity. Square, Tencent, Facebook, Amazon, and Alibaba are building the most precise consumer profiles, enabling them to offer value added services like capital loans and insurance either now or in the not-to-distant future. We believe these companies are building significant moats, or barriers to entry, with “value loops” generating more data from their consumers and building products that take increasing share in the marketplace.


Hasbro sets its sights on Mattel

Hasbro has held up relatively well. Chief Executive Brian Goldner has forged close ties to Hollywood, where the company is producing movies and is a favored partner for creating toys tied to films. In recent years, Hasbro won the coveted license for Walt Disney Co.’s Disney Princess characters and has long made toys tied to the media company’s “Star Wars” franchise. Hasbro is also more advanced in telling stories and creating content around its large brands, including a string of feature-length films for its Transformers franchise and more-recent launches like a My Little Pony movie.

Both Hasbro and Mattel were stung by the Toys “R” Us bankruptcy, which threw a major sales channel into turmoil and prompted them to stall deliveries to the retailer, but Mattel’s problems run deeper. The new regime laid out a plan that would keep the company in turnaround mode for a few more years as it tries to fix problems that it blamed on past management. Those included a proliferation of new toys with little staying power that heaped additional costs and complexity onto Mattel’s supply network.

A bigger concern was that a tie-up could trigger change-of-control clauses in the numerous licensing agreements with the likes of Disney, Nickelodeon and others.

Free games fuel $370 billion stock rally – and fears of a crash

In free-to-play games, 2% of players typically generate around 50% of revenue, according to consultancy Yokozuna Data. High-rollers often spend at least $500 per month. Today, the industry generates $100 billion in revenue with about 70 percent coming from in-game goods and services, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The industry is exploring dark territory. Last month, an Activision Blizzard Inc. patent surfaced which described how machine learning could be used to entice players to spend more. For example, a player could be paired with a teammate who owns a special paid item, and then encourage the player to buy it too.


It’s amazingly cheap to acquire a fleet of Airbus jets

Bill Franke’s airlines are generally fast-growing and profitable, in part because of low expenses and using the latest fuel-efficient jets. All three have exclusively adopted the A320 jet family for cost reasons too, as it makes it easy to swap flight crews and maintenance is less complicated.

Instead of buying jets outright, Frontier, Wizz and Volaris use sale-and-leasebacks. This makes financial sense. One industry observer says the cost of lease finance might be half that of funding an aircraft with equity because of the flood of cheap capital, much of it Chinese. By avoiding ownership, airlines also sidestep residual value risk. If a plane’s value falls, that’s the leasing company’s problem, not Franke’s.


Bob Lutz: Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap

We don’t need public acceptance of autonomous vehicles at first. All we need is acceptance by the big fleets: Uber, Lyft, FedEx, UPS, the U.S. Postal Service, utility companies, delivery services. Amazon will probably buy a slew of them. These fleet owners will account for several million vehicles a year. Every few months they will order 100,000 low-end modules, 100,000 medium and 100,000 high-end. The low-cost provider that delivers the specification will get the business.

These transportation companies will be able to order modules of various sizes — short ones, medium ones, long ones, even pickup modules. But the performance will be the same for all because nobody will be passing anybody else on the highway. That is the death knell for companies such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. That kind of performance is not going to count anymore.

Car dealers will continue to exist as a fringe business for people who want personalized modules or who buy reproduction vintage Ferraris or reproduction Formula 3 cars. Automotive sport — using the cars for fun — will survive, just not on public highways. And like racehorse breeders, there will be manufacturers of race cars and sports cars and off-road vehicles. But it will be a cottage industry. The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years.


Sean Stannard-Stockton interview: Shifting competitive landscapes

Today, if you log-on to Amazon and type in what you’re looking for – not a brand name, but a type of product – the #1 ranked item, regardless of brand, is likely to have thousands of reviews. If those reviews are say 4 or 4 ½ stars or better – with reviews from thousands of people, most consumers will happily purchase the item, no matter what the brand is. In this case, Amazon has effectively not just become a logistics provider, not just made shipping easy, not just benefitted from network effects, but it has inserted its own brand into the purchasing behavior – and so the consumer says, ”I trust Amazon and Amazon’s reviews so much that I don’t need to spend time searching or depending on a brand name, I can simply purchase the product no matter what its brand is.”

 

U.S. to dominate oil markets after biggest boom in world history

By 2025, the growth in American oil production will equal that achieved by Saudi Arabia at the height of its expansion, and increases in natural gas will surpass those of the former Soviet Union, the agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook. The boom will turn the U.S., still among the biggest oil importers, into a net exporter of fossil fuels.

Reflecting the expected flood of supply, the agency cut its forecasts for oil prices to $83 a barrel for 2025 from $101 previously, and to $111 for 2040 from $125 before.

 

I always used that as a metaphor for businesses. The customers pour in the Tender Vittles and in the U.S., when you had a union, they would fight and spill the whole bowl of Tender Vittles. In the end, no one could eat anymore. I looked at U.A.W. “It’s insane, they’re going to kill their company.” Sure enough, they damn near did. General Motors was almost bankrupt. In Germany, the unions have representatives on the board of the company. Yes, they say, “The first thing” — that this bowl of Tender Vittles — “we have to make sure that the bowl is there. We can fight all we want, but don’t spill the bowl.” You don’t destroy your company. That was not the attitude of Anglo-Saxon unions, either in England or the U.S.


Countries with the most farmland

The USDA now estimates that there is 15%-20% more farmland on earth than we expected. That’s 250 to 350 million more hectacres! With this addition, the USDA estimates there’s 1.87 Billion acres of farmland on earth.

In terms of total net cropland, this new study declares India as number 1.

 

 

Electric cars’ green image blackens beneath the bonnet

The Earth’s ozone hole is shrinking and is the smallest it has been since 1988

Warmer-than-usual weather conditions in the stratosphere are to thank for the shrinkage since 2016, as the warmer air helped fend off chemicals like chlorine and bromine that eat away at the ozone layer, scientists said. But the hole’s overall reduction can be traced to global efforts since the mid-1980s to ban the emission of ozone-depleting chemicals.

In June, scientists identified a possible threat to the recovery, believing dichloromethane — an industrial chemical with the power to destroy ozone — doubled in the atmosphere over the past 10 years. If its concentrations keep growing, it could delay the Antarctic ozone layer’s return to normal by up to 30 years, according to the study published in the journal Nature Communications.


How much is the Great Barrier Reef worth? Economists just figured it out

It came up with a value of A$56 billion ($43 billion) based on an asset supporting tens of thousands of jobs and which contributes A$6.4 billion to the economy. “Valuing nature in monetary terms can effectively inform policy settings and help industry, government, the scientific community and the wider public understand the contribution of the environment, or in this case the Great Barrier Reef, to the economy and society,’’ the Deloitte report said. “The tight and unforgiving deadline the Great Barrier Reef is up against necessitates an understanding of its true value to know what kind of policy action is required in response.’’


Why do we love pets? An expert explains.

In his latest book, Bradshaw argues that our fascination with pets is not because they’re useful, nor even because they’re cute, and certainly not because they’ll make us live longer. Instead, he writes, pet-keeping is an intrinsic part of human nature, one rooted deeply in our own species’ evolution.

People with animals, or as simply described as having a friendly dog with them, instantly become more trustworthy in the eyes of the person who’s encountering that person or having that person described to them.

The idea that simply getting a pet is going to make you happy and de-stress you is not going to work if you don’t do the homework about what the animal needs.

Both dogs and cats are carnivores — the cat is a very strict carnivore. The idea that we can continue to essentially farm the world in a way that provides enough meat for dogs and cats to eat, let alone humans, is probably not sustainable. Whether it will be possible for people to continue to keep these animals, or what kinds of substitutes they find if it does become impossible, I think is going to be fascinating, if somewhat painful for the people involved.

 

Why $450 Million for this painting isn’t crazy

Would 7.5 million people a year pay an average of 9 euros to visit the Louvre if La Gioconda, as the painting is sometimes called, weren’t there? If just a million of them passed on it, the museum would lose the entire amount paid for “Salvator Mundi” over 50 years.

It’s difficult to imagine anyone hoping to make much of a profit on a resale after paying such an outrageous price. But building a museum’s pitch for visitors around it could be a way to make economic sense out of the deal.

Earnings Call Digest 2017.08

Apple (Q3 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

Services revenue hit an all-time quarterly record of $7.3 billion representing 22% growth over last year. We continue to see great performance all around the world with double digit growth in each of our geographic segments. Over the last 12 months, our services business has become the size of a Fortune 100 company, a milestone we’ve reached even sooner than we had expected.

Sales of Apple Watch were up more than 50% in the June quarter and it’s the number one selling smartwatch in the world by a very wide margin.

We’re also seeing incredible enthusiasm for AirPods with 98% customer satisfaction based on Creative Strategy’s survey. We had increased production capacity for AirPods and are working very hard to get them to customers as quickly as we can, but we are still not able to meet the strong level of demand.

We are very focused on autonomous systems from a core technology point of view. We do have a large project going and are making a big investment in this. From our point of view, autonomy is the mother of all AI projects. And the autonomous systems can be used in a variety of ways and a vehicle is only one.

The App Store was a major driver of this performance. And according to App Annie’s latest report, it continues to be by a wide margin the preferred destination for customer purchases, generating nearly twice the revenue of Google Play. Revenue from our Apple Music streaming service and from iCloud storage also grew very strongly. And across all of our Services offerings, the number of paid subscriptions reached over 185 million, an increase of almost 20 million in the last 90 days alone.


Square (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

One of the drivers of our results is our work on automation, which I mentioned is an area of increased focus for us this year. Automation has always been a core differentiator for us. We’ve used machine learning and data science to manage risk since the beginning of Square. We’re constantly looking for ways to make our services more automated and more self-serve and machine learning is perfect for that.

First, automation allows us to give more people access to the financial system. More than 90% of sellers are automatically approved and self-onboard to process payments, and we’re able to onboard individuals to Square Cash with just a zip code and an e-mail address or phone number. We’ve extended this approach to risk management in Square Capital to provide financing to the underserved.

Second, automation helps us scale as we grow. For example, we currently automate risk assessment for more than 99.95% of transactions. We’re also able to make improvements to our manual handling; our fraud models have already allowed us to resolve 40% more cases every week, compared to beginning of the year.

And third, automation allows us to help our sellers grow. You can see this in our unique suite of CRM tools. We leverage our deep understanding of the customer to build marketing and loyalty programs that are easy to use, measurable and effective. Our loyalty programs are tracked and managed by Square point-of-sale and our technology automatically recommends programs optimized for the seller’s particular business.

Subscription and services-based revenue nearly doubled on a year-over-year basis as Instant Deposits, Caviar and Square Capital all benefited from stronger adoption, both within our installed-based and for bringing new customers to the Square ecosystem.


Tesla (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

What we have ahead of us, of course, is an incredibly difficult production ramp. Nonetheless, I think we’ve got a great team, and I’m very confident that we will be able to reach a production rate of 10,000 vehicles per week towards the end of next year. And we remain – we believe on track to achieve a 5,000 unit week by the end of this year.

So, if you can sort of see where we came from, the Roadster – we were making only 600 units a week where the non-powertrain portion of the car was made by Lotus. And we did the powertrain and final assembly of the car, and then we went from that to 20,000 units a year of the Model S, a far more complex car, where we did the whole thing. And then with Model 3, we are more vertically integrated. I think people should really not have any concerns that we will reach that outcome from a production rate.

…We’re also thinking hard about, where do we put Gigafactorys three, four, five and six? We expect to keep the majority of our production in the U.S., but it’s, obviously, going to make sense to establish a Gigafactory in China and Europe to serve the markets there, because it’s not to build cars in California and truck them halfway around the world, particularly when you’re trying to make things as affordable as possible – that really hurts. We really want to make our cars as affordable as possible. And so that does require some amount of local market production, particularly for the mass market vehicles in order to make it as accessible as possible.

Model Y, or our compact SUV – it’s called Model Y. It may or may not be – would be a totally new architecture. Upon the council of my executive team – thank you. Thanks, guys – who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity – much appreciated – the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring its market faster. Yes. So that will really accelerate our ability to get to Model Y to market faster, because fundamentally people prefer a sedan, people prefer an SUV. And in fact, the SUV market is larger. It’s the biggest single product I believe in the world.


Tableau Software (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

With subscription, our customers get the full power and simplicity of Tableau but with lower risk and a lower initial investment. And the move to subscription also creates recurring revenue streams, generates more predictable results over the long-term and expands the overall market.

For example, this quarter TransUnion, a credit reporting and global risk information provider that serves over 45,000 companies and more than 500 million customers, standardized their analytics on Tableau across multiple areas from credit reporting to health care and auto lending, amongst many others. By signing a subscription agreement, TransUnion will be able to flexibly scale their deployment as they grow and build out their analytic solutions…We continue to believe that subscription is the right long-term decision for all of our stakeholders and will only help us to sharpen our commitment to our customers on a daily basis.

Our passionate customer base is not just a U.S. phenomenon; it’s global. And it’s been incredible to see our community thrive around the world, across various user groups, training groups and conferences. For example, in the UK, Jet2.com, a leading British leisure airline and package holiday specialist, recently chose Tableau to visualize complex data that was difficult to analyze and access within Excel. With Tableau, Jet2 is now able to better analyze a range of data to attain faster speed to insight.

And in APAC, Mercedes-Benz expanded their self-service analytics capabilities with Tableau in their China Financial Services Group. Now the company, including the most senior management has real-time visibility on the organization’s auto financing, leasing and insurance performance and now makes daily strategic business decisions from a single source of truth through Tableau.

Turning now to customer momentum in the cloud, we’re seeing strong demand from customers who want to be able to run their analytics in the cloud. And with Tableau, customers can deploy on their choice of cloud, whether it be AWS, Azure or Google or a fully managed SaaS solution via Tableau Online. That flexibility and choice has already attracted thousands of customers running on Tableau Online and thousands more running Tableau on the public cloud. In fact, over one-third of our Tableau server trials today are deployed in the public cloud.

Turning now to product, I want to focus on two important areas: giving our customers choice with how they connect to their data and enriching our smart analytics offering via machine learning recommendations. Tableau now has over 65 native data connectors from on-premises databases like Oracle and SAP, Hadoop systems like Cloudera and Hortonworks, and cloud databases like Amazon Redshift and Google BigQuery.


IAC/InterActiveCorp (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

…it is a very – the SVOD market is very crowded and cost were skyrocketing.

In terms of new M&A, the thing that worked well for us are this concept of product – the scale improved the product, not just the price. That is the way – the way we think about network businesses or marketplace businesses and that’s what we’re looking for.

…there is again a natural tailwind today are in terms of the online migration, in terms of video being more relevant in a lot more places than it used to be, to a lot of businesses than it used to be, to lot more individuals than it used to be.


Activision Blizzard (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

We invest in creative and commercial excellence in order to expand reach, deepen engagement and provide more opportunity for player investment which then allows for reinvestment in creative and commercial excellence and for the growth cycle to continue.

Let’s start with audience reach, which was 407 million monthly active users this quarter. Blizzard did not have any new full game releases this quarter, yet a strong stream of content updates across Blizzard franchises drove an all-time MAU record of 46 million, up 38% from last year and up 12% from the last quarter. Blizzard’s community has now more than doubled in MAUs since early 2015, underscoring the ability to grow audience reach across the portfolio of platforms, regions, genres and business models.

As illustrated by the frequency with which players reengage each month, it remains at an all-time high. To put this in perspective, the time spent per player per day inside King franchises is 35 minutes, higher than that of Instagram or Snapchat.


Workiva (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

A large regional bank is using Wdesk for its call reports which are quarterly filings required by the FDIC. A large sporting-goods company is now using Wdesk for corporate performance management. The company will use Wdesk to consolidate spreadsheets into a linked workbook, thereby reducing manual data entry. The treasury department of a private electrical products manufacturer is using Wdesk for debt compliance reporting.

We remain focused on our leadership in the SEC compliance market. We continue to add new customers at both large and small public companies, because we believe that Wdesk is widely regarded as the best practice for SEC reporting and XBRL. In the first quarter of 2017, Wdesk was used to file 53% of all XBRL facts with the SEC. So as you can see, we have room to grow in this market. Customer press releases this quarter reported that a multinational agri business is achieving an ROI of 266% and reaping more than $677,000 in total savings and benefits over 3 years by using Wdesk to streamline its management reporting.

We finished Q2 with 2908 customers, a net increase of 286 customers from Q2 2016 and a net increase of 83 customers from Q1 2017. Our subscription and support revenue retention rate, excluding add-ons, was 96.1% for the month of June 2017 compared with 95.1% in both March 2017 and June 2016. Customers being acquired or ceasing to file SEC reports accounted for a majority of revenue attrition, consistent with our experience to date. With add-ons, our subscription and support revenue retention rate was 106% for the month of June 2017 compared with 106.6% in March 2017 and 110.2% in June 2016. Increased subscription revenue on non-SEC use cases from existing customers continues to be the primary driver of our add-on revenue retention rate.


Etsy (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

There has been much speculation about the size of the market for handmade. But handmade is not a purchase occasion nor is it representative of all of our 45 million listings. Etsy is about so much more than handmade. Buyers come to us when they want something special. And being the destination for something special is powerful because special can’t be commoditized.

But how big is the market for special? We believe the market for special is huge. Etsy shines specifically in three types of purchase occasions. Celebrations, gifting and style. If you think about it, these types of occasions happen regularly throughout the year. These occasions drive purchases across six primary categories, clothing and accessories, home and living, jewelry, craft supplies, art and collectibles, and paper and party supplies. Not surprisingly, these are also Etsy’s top six categories based on GMS.

First, we are building trust and reliability throughout the buyer experience. Trust is essential for any marketplace but is even more so for one that’s both on original and unbranded goods. Our goal is to bolster trust not just in the item and the seller, but in the Etsy brand.


NVIDIA (Q2 2018 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

Data center is a very large market, as you know, and the reason for that is because the vast majority of the world’s future computing will be largely done in data centers. And there’s a very well accepted notion now that GPU acceleration of servers delivers extraordinary value proposition. If you have a data-intensive application, and the vast majority of the future applications in data centers will be data intensive, a GPU could reduce the number of servers you require or increase the amount of throughput pretty substantially. Just adding one GPU to a server could reduce several hundred thousand dollars of reduction in number of servers. And so the value proposition and the cost savings of using GPUs is quite extraordinary.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain is here to stay. The market need for it is going to grow, and over time it will become quite large. It is very clear that new currencies will come to market, and it’s very clear that the GPU is just fantastic at cryptography. And as these new algorithms are being developed, the GPU is really quite ideal for it. And so this is a market that is not likely to go away anytime soon, and the only thing that we can probably expect is that there will be more currencies to come. It will come in a whole lot of different nations. It will emerge from time to time, and the GPU is really quite great for it.

Volta was a giant leap. It’s got 120 teraflops. Another way to think about that is eight of them in one node is essentially one petaflops, which puts it among the top 20 fastest supercomputers on the planet. And the entire world’s top 500 supercomputers are only 700 petaflops. And with eight Voltas in one box, we’re doing artificial intelligence that represents one of them. So Volta is just a gigantic leap for deep learning and it’s such a gigantic leap for processing that – and we announced it at GTC, if you recall, which is practically right at the beginning of the quarter.

A neural net in terms of complexity is approximately – not quite, but approximately doubling every year. And this is one of the exciting things about artificial intelligence. In no time in my history of looking at computers in the last 35 years have we ever seen a double exponential where the GPU computing model, our GPUs are essentially increasing in performance by approximately three times each year. In order to be 100 times in just four years, we have to increase overall system performance by a factor of three, by over a factor of three every year.

And yet on the other hand, on top of it, the neural network architecture and the algorithms that are being developed are improving in accuracy by about twice each year. And so object recognition accuracy is improving by twice each year, or the error rate is decreasing by half each year. And speech recognition is improving by a factor of two each year. And so you’ve got these two exponentials that are happening, and it’s pretty exciting. That’s one of the reasons why AI is moving so fast.

The second major component is our self-driving car platforms, and a lot of it still is infotainment systems. Our infotainment system is going to evolve into an AI cockpit product line. We initially started with autonomous driving. But you probably heard me say at GTC that our future infotainment systems will basically turn your cockpit or turn your car into an AI. So your whole car will become an AI. It will talk to you. It will know where you are. It knows who’s in the cabin. And if there are potential things to be concerned about around the car, it might even just tell you in natural language. And so the entire car will become an AI.

The next revolution of AI will be at the edge, and the most visible impactful evidence will be the autonomous vehicle. Our strategy is to build a ground-up deep learning platform for self-driving cars, and that has put us in pole position to lead the charge.


The Walt Disney (Q3 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

It’s been clear to us for a while with the future of this industry will be forged by direct relationships between content creators and consumers. Given our incomparable collection of strong brands that are recognized and respected the world over, no one is better positioned to lead the industry into this dynamic new era, and we’re accelerating our strategy to be at the forefront of this transformation.

With this strategic shift, we’ll end our distribution agreement with Netflix for subscription streaming of new releases beginning with the 2019 calendar-year theatrical slate. These announcements marked the beginning of what will be an entirely new growth strategy for the company, one that takes advantage of the opportunities the changing media and technology industries provide us to leverage the strength of our great brands.

But we’ve already begun the development process at the Disney Channel and at the Studio to create original TV series and original movies for this service. So if the Studio makes, let’s call it, roughly 10 films a year or distributes 10 films a year – that includes Marvel and Pixar and Star Wars and Disney-branded and Disney Animation. We’ve commissioned them to make, to produce more films with the incremental films being produced very, very specifically and very exclusively for this service. So this will represent a larger investment in Disney-branded intellectual property, both TV and movies.

I think there are forces, whether they’re technological in nature or sociological or economic in nature, out there that are changing the way media is consumed in general, and I don’t think this is either going to hasten them or exacerbate things in any way. What it does do, though, is a couple of things. First of all, it gives us the ability to leverage the strength of our brands, which a lot of our peers and competitors do not have. Secondly, it gives us what we’d call optionality. It’s a word I’ve not used very much in my life, but it gives us the flexibility, really, to move our product to the consumer in many new ways, ways that we’ve not been able to do before, because of just how strong this platform is that we bought control of.


TripAdvisor (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

We have large app penetration and a great ability to offer attractions to our users, so marketing efficiency, but then just operational efficiency as well. So initially, a lot of manpower going into both site development as well as supply expansion and we’re now reaping some of the leverage benefits from that going forward. So you are right, we are managing the business not for profitability. We’re managing it for growth. There’s just tremendous opportunity in terms of the TAM of this – particularly the attractions market space. We feel we have an early lead and we continue to invest aggressively to capitalize on that advantage. So, we’re not seeking margin expansion, and going forward, we will continue to emphasize revenue growth. But the way the business has evolved has allowed us to see some margin expansion this year.

In terms of the monetization, there’s likely to be always a delta between monetization on desktop and on the phone. It is just more plausible that you book a larger trip, a multi-day, multi-destination trip on your desktop in the comfort, obviously, on your big screen and more detailed photos and skew the more immediate purchases to the phone.

As we are working on our conversion improvements, they’re all aligned with matching our advertising campaign and matching our value proposition that delivering to travelers of helping them save money on this trip. We’re so well known for reviews, which is wonderful, incredible differentiator. It’s hard to imagine anyone could ever make a serious inroad to us in terms of being a competitor in that space. But as we move the product, the display, the visibility and the impression of TripAdvisor on the part of our travelers, to view us as that review site, that review site that actually saved me a ton of money because it offered me a great value hotel that I wouldn’t have otherwise find with a better price or it helped me find the best place to actually reserve a room at this hotel that I want to go at, and that’s kind of a new piece and so part of the site redesign was clarity. Part of the site redesign was easier shopping experience, but one of the things that we love the most from our testing that we’ve achieved in this redesign is that we are educating our users, our travelers that we’re helping to save them money, that we’re finding them great prices. And we see that come through in our surveys, we see that come through in those anecdotes in the stories, and that matches, of course, the big message in our brand campaigns.


MakeMyTrip (Q1 2018 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

The latest estimates from IAMAI, the Internet and Mobile Association of India, indicates that India now has roughly 420 million mobile Internet users and this base is expected to keep growing rapidly.

Large opportunities for new user growth will likely come from the non-urban parts of the country where penetration levels are estimated at 16%. Affordable smartphones and data plans are easily available via the recent disruptive offers from the telecom players led by Reliance Jio.

Additionally, a significant government initiative which can facilitate online penetration is the unified payments interface app called BHIM, which creates a common nationwide payments platform for simple and quick transfer of money.

Indian carriers collectively have already placed more than 1,300 new orders, with 250 planes expected to be put into service over the next two to three years. Furthermore, demand for air travel is expected to increase with the launch of the government’s regional air connectivity program called Udan by operationalizing up to 100 regional airports out of a total 400 unserved or underserved domestic regional airports by fiscal year 2019.


DISH Network (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

I think each carriers offer a little bit different strategy today. I mean, obviously AT&T is getting more heavily into the content side of the business. Verizon’s got more of a small cell strategy and T-Mobile is just taking away a lot of the pain points that are out there. So each have strategies that those guys are a lot more knowledgeable about the wireless business than I am, so each of the – there’s no reason that each of those strategies can’t work.

So, all those things are going to happen. The only thing I know for sure is that if you’re born today in the United States, you’re probably not going to have one second of your life you’re not connected. And you’re going to use a lot of data during your lifetime. And there’s going to be – and that’s just people. And every microprocessor and every light and every other thing is going to have a sensor that’s going to be connected. And that’s just – it’s going to make us more productive. And it’s going to save companies money. And so there’s going to be very large companies coming out of the connectivity business on a big scale, and we hope to play a part in that.

You can’t have all the profits going to three or four companies and have the guys that are – the companies that are providing them the raw material to make that money, not get wake up one day and get a little smarter. That’d be my guess, but I don’t know if that’s going to happen. But at some point, all the money going one direction, a lot of people are enabling that. They’re going to wake up and say maybe they should get – I’ve been through this business long enough to know that the money ebbs and flows between distribution and content. It’s probably going to continue to do that today. And a lot of the content companies, probably the distribution guys, probably are going to be in position to get a more of it. Then it may go the other direction.

The average smartphone probably consumes, I don’t know, 5 gigs a month. Use cases that are being discussed around 5G that will start to materialize in the early 2020s, they’re going to dwarf that in terms of the amount of data consumed whether that be drone network or autonomous vehicles or healthcare or massive connectivity. So to look at the marketplace in terms of today’s four big competitors and the new entrants, I think you have to really think about how the market will get redefined in the next five years to seven years to ten years.


The Home Depot (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

We’ve had obviously a protracted recovery here, and it has been clearly driven from housing which has been a steady but slow recovery in the market. You know we continually look at months of supply, there is 4.3 months of supply in the market of housing availability against a historical norm of six, that clearly is helping to drive improvement in home value appreciation, but housing starts haven’t returned to their norm yet either. The only thing that’s kind of run on an historical averages is housing turnover. So, we see this housing favorability continuing as we look forward. And I think the watch out for us is, you wouldn’t want to see affordability become an issue, but that at this point doesn’t seem to be a concern for us at all.

Right. As we look at the affordability index, it stands at 153%, so long ways to go before that would be a watch out for us. And recovery is a difficult thing to put your arms around. But if you look at simply PFRI dollars they’ve only recovered 70% of the loss. The other thing that’s really interesting to us is the age of the housing stock. We’ve talked to you a lot about 66% of the housing stock being older than 30 years. Did you know that 51% of the house stock is older than 40 years and as houses age, well, they need more of repair.


TJX Companies (Q2 2018 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

Our key pillars for growth remain driving comp sales and customer traffic and our global store expansion. Our consistently strong performance tells us that our strategies to drive customer traffic and comp sales are working. Further, we see enormous global store growth potential for TJX. We have plenty of white space or markets to fill in throughout our current countries. Long-term, we see the opportunity to open 5,600 stores with just our current banners and that’s about 1,700 more stores than we have today. We continue to see store openings as an attractive investment and a very good use of capital. We are convinced that these growth drivers will allow us to continue to capture additional market share both in the U.S. and internationally.

We see our treasure hunt shopping experience as an advantage. As today shopper spends more on personal experiences, particularly millennials they constructed dollars further in our stores in both our apparel and non-apparel categories. We are very pleased that across our major divisions we continue to capture a broad age demographic with new shoppers skewing towards younger customers. We see this as a great indicator for our future.

In closing I would like to emphasize that the key advantages that I have discussed today are all built on our 40 years plus of experience in building, developing and refining our off-price retail model. While we were trying to keep our business simple and focused, the ability to operate and highly integrate international – to operate a highly integrated international off-price retail business doesn’t happen overnight and we believe would be extremely difficult to replicate. We have decades of experience to build international teams and infrastructures that we see as key advantages. We believe our buying organization of more than 1,000 associates is best-in-class. We have great longevity among our buyers which we attribute to our very strong corporate culture. Our worldwide vendor universe also took us decades to build. We see ourselves as a global sourcing machine. Our processes, systems and logistics are all built to support our off-price opportunistic buying. Further, we have been operating internationally for well over two decades and are the only major international off-price apparel and home fashions retailer.


Tencent Holdings (Q2 2017 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

We have been investing heavily in AI but relatively quietly, as we view AI as an essential capability that enhances user experience and empowers us to capture the new exciting opportunities to grow our businesses for the future. We’re confident that our existing strength in computing power, data, engineering, technologies as well as use cases coupled with our proactive build-up of AI content — talent will give us a favorable position in this strategic initiative. Especially a wide and diversified business scope creates a variety of use cases for AI research and application across a range of AI fundamental research areas, such as machine learning, computer vision, speech recognition and natural language processing. We will be persistent but patient with our AI investment, because we believe it is a long-term initiative, and we do not necessarily require a research to generate revenue directly in the short-term. On the other hand, AI will significantly benefit all of our existing products, services and businesses in many ways.

There is a lot of usage, more and more people are watching online video at longer and longer time, on a daily basis. But at the same time — and at the same time, advertising revenue has been increasing, and there is also an increasing willingness from consumers to pay. So, the subscription number as well as revenue has been increasing quite rapidly. On the other hand, the flip side of this is the cost of content has been increasing, even faster. So, what we see is that over time, we believe the content will continue to increase, but the rates would probably be lower. And the subscription, as we continue to increase, would deliver higher revenue per active user. So, we will get closer to a more equilibrium between cost and revenue at some point in time. But I think unfortunately at this point in time, the net loss of the business is still increasing.

It’s a little bit tough to make advertising revenue from that because we usually — these video are relatively short; and depending on how aggressive you are in terms of balancing user experience and monetization, I think if you really care about user experience and the trends of putting advertising on these short videos are more limited.

In terms of the advertising, I think most of the growth has actually been from the click-through rates as well as the improvement in targeting technology. As a result, the pricing achieved has been higher. There is some help from the other two factors, which is slight increase in terms of the inventory and an increase in terms of the general traffic. But, I think from the inventory angle, we have achieved a second ad for some cities, but within a 24-hour period, not everybody is seeing two ads. So, compared to our international peers, I think the amount of inventory is relatively small. And at the same time, the traffic increase has been most significant around Moments. Then, if you look at our performance ads, it’s across pretty large number of different properties. So, the traffic growth in the other areas might not be as great as the Moments traffic increase.

At this point, my guess is that the big advertisers have a certain budget for television and then for online video and then they have a separate budget for social and a separate budget for search and so forth. And then, the migration between those buckets happens relatively slowly, typically at the beginning of each year rather than happening on a month-by-month basis.

In terms of providing AI-as-a-service, I think this is definitely a one direction that we are going into in our cloud business already and we are seeing a lot of demand on that. And we have been able to sign up a lot of customers because of our ability to offer them AI capability. And that’s just the beginning. Over time, I think we will do much more on that.

In terms of games and targeting, if you look at games playing globally, particularly on the personal computer, it’s moved from being media driven to being increasingly community driven. 20 years ago, people discovered new games on the PC in the U.S. and Europe through computer magazines; now, they’re discovering them through reddit, through Twitch, through those kinds of more communal venues. And some of the same trends are underway in China. And what we’re trying to do is working with the game developers to make sure that we target their games to the users who are likely to be most receptive.


Alibaba Group (Q1 2018 Results) – Earnings Call Transcript

The macro way of looking at the landscape is e-commerce accounts for 15% of total retail in China. The retail segment in China is about $5 trillion economy in value. 15% of e-commerce still leads, 85% of retail that is offline.

In this new world of consumption expectations, the distinction between online and offline would disappear.

Mobile Taobao is the Chinese consumers’ leading destination for online shopping and the total MAU for mobile apps with access to our China retail marketplaces has grown to 529 million. No other commerce app in the world compares to mobile Taobao’s consumer engagement and user stickiness. Our user stickiness measured by the DAU divided by MAU ratio continues to remain above 40% due to our relentless focus on more content and community-driven engagement on the approximately, allowing consumers to enjoy the fun of discovery and exploration. We not only satisfy existing user needs but more importantly we’re able to stimulate new demand as user experiences have become more content-driven by community of consumption-related content generators, such as influencers and key opinion leaders have emerged alongside buyers and sellers in the ecosystem.

What unifies the businesses in the Alibaba economy is our mission, to make it easy to do business anywhere. We believe the path to value creation becomes extremely clear when we focus on a single mission. In the next 5, 10, 15 years, you will see an unfolding of how we execute the new retail strategy as it becomes an integral part of the Alibaba economy. Shareholder value will follow when we create value for our customers. So, understanding this is important to understanding a long view of Alibaba.

Our cloud computing business continues to enjoy high growth at scale with annualized revenue growth well exceeding $1 billion, while paying customers surpassed 1 million. An important milestone in a landscape where every industry is seeking to migrate to the cloud, we believe 1 million is merely a starting point.

Regarding 30-minute delivery, as an example of where new retail can be very disruptive to existing ecommerce. Consumer demand is generated from an in-store experience and then that consumer says, well, I am going to a movie, so I don’t want to a carry bag with me, so I am going to have it delivered to my home within a very short period of time. That’s where logistics — your traditional e-commerce logistics infrastructure can be disruptive because you’ll need to fulfill out of that retail location as opposed to out of a warehouse that is not even in the city center. So, the expectation becomes 30 minutes and not overnight or 24 hours. So, that’s going to be very, very disruptive to existing infrastructure and investments that have been made.