Curated Insights 2019.06.28

Facebook, Libra, and the long game

And this is when this bet would pay off for Facebook (and the second point I missed in my earlier analysis): the implication that digital currencies will do for money what the Internet did for information is that the very long-term trend will be towards centralization around Aggregators. When there is no friction, control shifts from gatekeepers controlling supply to Aggregators controlling demand. To that end, by pioneering Libra, building what will almost certainly be the first wallet for the currency, and bringing to bear its unmatched network for facilitating payments, Facebook is betting it will offer the best experience for digital currency flows, giving it power not by controlling Libra but rather by controlling the most users of Libra.

Forget the mall, shoppers are buying Gucci at airports

For the first time last year, Estée Lauder Co. generated more revenue at airports globally than at U.S. department stores, which for decades had been beauty companies’ biggest sales driver … “Very few channels have almost guaranteed traffic,” said Olivier Bottrie, who heads Estée Lauder’s global travel-retail business. “When a department store goes away, it’s not a major catastrophe. But if a major airport went away, it would be a major catastrophe.”

Employees who stay in companies longer than two years get paid 50% less

Staying employed at the same company for over two years on average is going to make you earn less over your lifetime by about 50% or more …

In 2014, the average employee is going to earn less than a 1% raise and there is very little that we can do to change management’s decision. But, we can decide whether we want to stay at a company that is going to give us a raise for less than 1%. The average raise an employee receives for leaving is between a 10% to 20% increase in salary.

Curated Insights 2019.06.14

A conversation with Scott Kupor of Andreessen Horowitz, author and speaker at Lean Startup Conference 2019

I’m pretty sure this is not a fundable idea, but here goes! I’ve long been interested in health and, in particular, the role of food choices in determining health. I also believe that if people understood what was in fact healthy – not an easy task given the difficulty in producing scientifically rigorous studies on nutrition – and if they had the luxury of time to prepare healthy meals, they would in fact do so. We’ve certainly made progress over the last twenty or so years in addressing some of these challenges – there are more restaurants that do more to cater to the health-informed and of course we have the plethora of ingredient and meal home delivery services.

But what I think is missing is the perfect substitute for a home cooked meal that caters precisely to the ingredients/nutritional needs of the individual. I’d love to be able to order a meal that incorporates the precise ingredients I want and is made from the precise recipe I provide – just as I would do if I had the time (and patience) to do it on my own. This of course is probably why this will never work as a business – I’m not sure mass customization works economically. But, I am fascinated by the new “cloud kitchens” type models that are being formed and am hopeful that maybe they will crack the code on this.

Meatless future or vegan delusions? The Beyond Meat valuation

In 2018, the meatless meat market had sales of $1-$5 billion, depending on how broadly you define meatless markets and the geographies that you look at. Defined as meatless meats, i.e., the products that Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods offer, it is closer to the lower end of the range, but inclusive of other meat alternatives (tofu, tempeh etc.) is at the upper end. No matter which end of the range you go with, it is small relative to the overall meat market that is in excess of $250 billion, just in the US, and closer to a trillion, if you expand it globally, in 2018. In fact, while the meat market has seen slow growth in the US and Europe, with a shift from beef to chicken, the global meat market has been growing, as increasing affluence in Asia, in general, and China, in particular, has increased meat consumption, Depending on your perspective on Beyond Meats, that can be bad news or good news, since it can be taken by detractors as a sign that the overall market for meatless meats is not very big and by optimists that there is plenty of room to grow.

The big question that we face is in estimating how much the shift towards vegan and vegetarian diets will continue, driven by health reasons or environmental concern (or guilt). There is also a question of whether some governments may accelerate the shift away from meat-based diets, with policies and subsidies. Given this uncertainty, it is not surprising that the forecasts for the size of the meatless meat market vary widely across forecasters. While they all agree that the market will grow, they disagree about the end number, with forecasts for 2023 ranging from $5 billion at the low end to $8 billion at the other extreme. Beyond Meat, in its prospectus, uses the expansion of non-dairy milk(soy, flax, almond mild) in the milk market as its basis, to estimate the market for meatless meat to be $35 billion in the long term.

The wealth detective who finds the hidden money of the super rich

The top 0.1% of taxpayers (170,000 families) control 20% of American wealth, the highest share since 1929.

The top 1% control 39% of U.S. wealth, and the bottom 90% have only 26%.

The bottom half of Americans combined have a negative net worth.