Regional Notes 2018.05.25

Malaysia’s credit rating threatened by GST removal

“In 2017, GST revenue was RM44.3 billion or 3.3% of GDP. Unless the government introduces other offsetting measures at least over the next one to two years, the GST’s removal will have a net negative effect on government revenue, even accounting for some budgetary cushion from higher oil prices.”

“Beyond 2018, the reintroduction of the SST will create a revenue shortfall of 1.7% of GDP if the GST remains at zero. The ministry of finance said it will announce specific measures that will cushion the shortfall. According to the government, the rationale for eliminating the GST is that it will ultimately boost private consumption and economic growth, adding to the tax coffers through improvements in corporate and motor vehicle taxes, and excise and import duties. We do not include these effects in our assumptions because we do not expect a sizeable multiplier effect.”

“While it will uplift consumer sentiment in the short term, the actual consumer spending trend would depend on the impact of the GST removal on general prices. We foresee ‘price stickiness’ to be a major challenge for policymakers as businesses may, for example, be reluctant to reduce prices due to profiteering and a general belief that most businesses will not reduce prices.”

Malaysia’s 1 trillion Ringgit government debt explained

Federal government debt of 686.8 billion ringgit, or 50.8 percent of gross domestic product

Government guarantees of 199.1 billion ringgit, or 14.6 percent of GDP. The government is committed to paying the debt of entities which are unable to do so, including 42.2 billion ringgit for Danainfra Nasional Bhd, 26.6 billion ringgit for Prasarana Malaysia Bhd and 38 billion ringgit for 1MDB.

Lease payments for public-private projects of 201.4 billion ringgit, or 14.9 percent of GDP. The government is obligated to pay for rental, maintenance and other costs on a number of projects, such as construction of schools, hospitals and roads.

NTPM to spend RM50mil on expansion

“Our selling price has been adjusted by about 10% already, but still that is not sufficient. So, the profit has dropped. For this reason, we need to increase our market share to sell more. The growth of the tissue paper business in the domestic market is less than 3% a year, which is in line with global growth. In Vietnam and Indo-China, however, the growth is faster, which is why we are expanding the Vietnam operations.” Lee said the group was targeting to double the contribution from Vietnam by 2019 to RM80mil from RM40mil.

The tissue paper business generates about 65% of group revenue, while the personal care segment contributes 35%. Some 90% of the personal care business is generated from the local market. Despite the challenging and highly competitive local market conditions, the group succeeded in raising the revenue from the personal care segment by 9.4% to RM199.9mil in 2017.


Vitrox expects 2018 to be another growth year

“In the first three months of 2018, we have secured accumulated sales orders of about RM105mil, which will keep us busy for the next three months. The March book-to-bill ratio is 1:2, which means that for every 100 units of products we ship out, we receive 120 units of new orders in the same period. The current book-to-bill ratio is even higher.”

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